Periodic State of the Elfyverse
Folks, it’s been a while, so it’s time for another “state of the Elfyverse” blog.
What’s going on with the Elfyverse right now is that I’m stalled in part 47 of AN ELFY ABROAD (the sequel to ELFY, which still hasn’t found a home). I have figured out an alternate beginning to ELFY which may help me find an agent who’ll understand it and help me find a publisher, but I haven’t yet managed to get it down in a way that makes any more sense than what I already have. (“May” being the operative word, of course.) And I managed to get a few thousand words into the ELFY prequel, KEISHA’S VOW . . . mind you, KEISHA’S is a big-time prequel as it’s set in 1954 and ELFY is present-day. (The dead characters in ELFY are alive and well in KEISHA’S, and it explains in part — or should, once completed — why one of the ELFY characters is such a mucked-up mess.)
Things get a bit more problematic when I start trying to fix an Elfyverse short story “Boys Night In,” as so far I’ve had comments like, “The dialogue makes no sense.” “They get into this way too easily.” “What’s the point of this again?” and so on. (I did get high marks for humor from one test reader. So I’m still doing something right.) So that story is in need of extensive revision, perhaps to the degree Carolyn See recommends in her book MAKING A LITERARY LIFE, complete with the wine, the red pen, and more wine.
The good news is that I’m still hard after it; the bad news is that when I get stalled in a chapter (as I am in part 47 of EA) I just sit there until I figure out whatever’s bothering me. This is a far different process than what I had while Michael was alive, as we were both writing the story then and talking things out with him — always an interested audience, even when I wasn’t writing an Elfyverse story of any kind — made big messes like this one get solved a little faster. Or in this case, a lot faster as I’ve been stuck in the same place for at least three weeks.
Some of my friends who are authors write different things — say, a romance instead of a Western, or a hard SF story instead of a mystery — to break a hard block like this one. I’ve tried that in the past and for whatever reason, unless I have a really good idea in a different genre that takes off, it just doesn’t work for me. Whatever it is in my backbrain has to take its own, sweet time toward resolving itself, and then and only then can I get on with the business of writing.
While I’m doing all that, I continue to edit. And, of course, I comment, I blog when the mood strikes me (or a really big story hits that I know I can’t pass on no matter how blocked I feel at the time), and I just let things play out as they will.
See, the best thing we can do when we’re stalled on a project is to continue to have faith in ourselves. We’ve already written X words (in my case, probably well over 600,000 in the past seven years, and who knows how many before then? Many, many, many.), and we’re going to write more, so why fret it?
Or, as Michael used to tell me, “If you can’t write today, you will write tomorrow. And if you’re too ill to write tomorrow, you’ll write three times as much the next day.” (He knew me very well, and he was always right about such things.)
The upshot is, it’s pointless to fret, even though it’s very human that we do so . . . and sometimes, the best “medicine” with a story is to completely get away from it (perhaps by what my other writer-friends have suggested by writing something completely different, or perhaps a change of scenery or a vacation away from the MSS) so you can come back at it afresh.
I’m doing my best to listen to Michael’s advice, as it was always good, and try to be patient with myself. I’ve got a better shot that way at breaking the block in part 47, and then, once that’s gone, working on part 48 and winding up the first draft of EA, however many more chapters that’s going to be. (I estimate seven. But who really knows?) Once I’ve done that — completely managed to get the whole EA story out of my head and onto the page — then I have a better shot at fixing “Boys Night In” and perhaps writing an alternate opening to ELFY that might increase its chances of finding an agent or publisher who’ll love it and can’t live without it.
Tonight’s SBR review: Barbara Ehrenreich’s “Bright-Sided”
Folks, you need to read Barbara Ehrenreich’s BRIGHT-SIDED. You need to read it right now, then come back and talk with me — because this is the most honest take on what Ehrenreich calls “the cult of positive thinking” I’ve ever seen.
Here’s my review, which I finished about fifteen minutes ago at SBR:
I hope to have more thoughts about this astonishingly relevant book tomorrow, but for now, all I can say is, “Brava, Ms. Ehrenreich!”
Recalls, part 3 (the end, for now) — Wirch and Holperin Retain their Seats
Folks, the Wisconsin “recall summer” came to an end last night, with incumbent Democratic Senators Bob Wirch and Jim Holperin** retaining their seats, both in comfortable fashion. These two recall elections were the last of nine recalls that were scheduled between July and August, and the final standings were that seven incumbents won — three Democratic incumbents (all three of them; the third was Dave Hansen, who crushed his opponent on July 19) and four Republican incumbents — and two challengers won, Democratic Assemblywoman Jennifer Shilling in Lacrosse and Oshkosh’s former deputy mayor Jessica King, also a Democrat.
That means that none of the “Wisconsin 14” Democrats lost their seats over their actions of leaving the state in February in order to protest Governor Scott Walker’s “budget repair bill” which attempted to strip public employee union members of their rights. Two of the six Republicans who were recalled for voting in lockstep with Scott Walker and the Fitzgerald Brothers (Jeff, the Speaker of the Assembly, and his brother Scott, Senate Majority leader) regarding the “budget repair bill” and many other controversial issues, including taking $800 million out of Wisconsin’s public education budget, ended up losing their seats (the ousted Republicans being Dan Kapanke of LaCrosse and Randy Hopper of Fond du Lac).
Overall, what the recall season proved is that an incumbent Senator on either side, in general, has a serious edge over a challenger regardless of the nature of the dispute that has brought him (or her) to be recalled and have to stand for election once again. The recall summer has also proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Wisconsin remains a 50/50 state — a state that neither Democrats nor Republicans can say solidly is behind their policies — which you’d think would make Wisconsin stronger rather than weaker in the days and weeks to come.
However, the reason I say that the recalls have ended “for now” is because I’ll be really astonished if we don’t see more recalls at the first of the year. The freshmen Republican Senators are eligible to be recalled as of January 3, 2012, as is Governor Scott Walker, and it looks more likely than not that Walker, and several Republican Senators who followed the party line, including my own Van Wanggaard of Racine, will be recalled. Further, there are some members of the Democratic “Wisconsin 14” who can be recalled, including the high-profile Senators Chris Larson of Milwaukee and Jon Erpenbach of Middleton — neither one of these Senators would be likely to get voted out, but the Republicans may well be able to get the signatures needed to force a recall election for all I know. (Note that the two newest members of the Wisconsin state Senate, King and Shilling, are not eligible to be recalled. They must, however, defend their seats in November of 2012, so they’ll have just over a year to prove their worth to their constituents.)
What adds fuel to the fire here is the new, gerrymandered map of political districts, which will make three Senate seats — including Alberta Darling’s district 8 and Wanggaard’s district 21 — much more safely “Republican.” Those new boundaries are expected to kick in for the November ’12 elections, which is why getting Wanggaard out is likely to happen sooner rather than later as his current constituents want him out, partly because he voted for that horrible map which will make his district part rural Racine county and part rural Kenosha county, excluding much of the city of Racine. Note that the “new” boundaries of district 21 would include Senator Bob Wirch’s house — yes, Wirch was “drawn out” of his own, home district 22 (which right now is the city of Kenosha, Kenosha County, and a little bit of Racine County) — so it’s possible Wanggaard might get recalled anyway no matter who his constituents are, as Wirch is extremely popular in Kenosha (city and county, both) and would be as likely to knock Wanggaard out of office as anyone, should he choose to do so. (Note that Wirch’s term of office also ends in November ’12; the only way he could hold his seat and keep his home is to have Wanggaard recalled, then challenge him for the seat. But it’s more likely Wirch will move to the “new boundaries” of district 22 than do that, providing the law holds up in court.)
The map is currently being litigated in Federal court by several former Democratic legislators, and may end up getting overturned. There’s a lot of stupid, petty political crap in there like chopping up the city of Milwaukee and putting it with four different districts (rather than the two it, mostly, has now) in order to weaken the urban influence, which is just as bad as putting the cities of Kenosha and Racine in one district (district 22) while putting the counties of Kenosha and Racine in another (district 21), but all of that may not actually violate any federal laws — as I’m not a lawyer, I cannot judge the merits of the lawsuit.
Because I can’t plan on the lawsuit overturning the gerrymandering — nor can any other political activist — my current plan is to keep working with the folks I know who want Wanggaard out, and get him recalled ASAP right along with Walker. That way, the people who voted Wanggaard in will still have a chance to get him out if they indeed wish to do so rather than many of them being forced into the “new” version of district 22 as the current, revamped map has it.
So as I said, the recalls are over — for now. But there’s still much to be done.
As Ed Schultz says on his MSNBC show, “Let’s get to work.”
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** Jim Holperin is the only legislator in Wisconsin history to survive two recall elections. He was recalled in 1993 as an Assemblyman, then won his race and was retained. This year, Holperin was recalled as a Senator, and was once again retained. So he’s either really good at what he does, really lucky — or, perhaps, both.
Baseball Update: Thome’s 600 HR, Brewers Triple Play, and Zambrano on DQ List
Folks, we’ve had quite the season from my favorite team, the Milwaukee Brewers, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t start out with the story everyone’s talking about (no, not the Brewers’ triple play, though I’ll get to that in a bit): Jim Thome hit two home runs tonight, numbers 599 and 600, to bring him to the 600 HR club — and he’s only the eighth person in major league baseball history to do so.
Here’s a quote:
“To get it over with, what a sigh of relief,” he said. “You work so hard — obviously fought through some injuries all year long.”
But when healthy, he’s still as capable as anyone of putting a powerful swing on the ball.
Rodriguez needed two weeks to hit No. 600 after reaching 599 last year. Thome waited one inning.
After a lineout and a single in his first two at-bats, Thome lifted a drive to left-center off Rick Porcello(notes) in the sixth, breaking a 3-all tie. That homer went an estimated 412 feet. His 600th was shorter. For a moment, it appeared Young might have a chance to make a play on the ball, but Young—who was traded from the Twins to the Tigers earlier in the day—could only watch as his former teammate’s hit disappeared over his head.
Congratulations, Mr. Thome! Way to go!
Next, we get to the Brewers triple play (only the sixth in team history), an unusual one — second to short to first to home (4-6-1-2) — which happened in the second inning. First Josh Wilson at second grabbed the ball, shoveling it to shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt for the first out. Betancourt threw it to Prince Fielder at first base to get the second out, then Fielder in a head’s up move threw it to catcher George Kotteras for the third out — Kotteras ably made a tag on a sliding Matt Kemp to complete the triple play.
It was a lot of fun to watch, and has to be something I can honestly say I never expected to see from this year’s version of the Milwaukee Brewers infield, none of whom are known to be Gold Glove-caliber fielders.
As for the rest of the game, the Brewers had four double plays in this game, one of ’em being a Prince Fielder (3) unassisted one in the ninth to cement the win. The Brewers’ runs were all solo homers by Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy (who pinch hit in the 8th) and Corey Hart. John Axford finished the game with his 32nd consecutive save, a Brewers record he keeps adding to (he broke the old one four or five saves ago), and Randy Wolf got excellent run and defensive support for a change to bring his overall record to 10-8. Dodgers’ pitcher Ted Lilly, who only gave up two hits in seven innings (both to Ryan Braun, one being Braun’s homer to get the Brewers on the board) took a very tough loss, dropping his record to 7-13.
Finally, we get to the third, and much less optimistic, story of the last weekend, that being of Carlos Zambrano’s unusual move of cleaning out his Cubs locker after getting ejected on Friday night for throwing two consecutive brushback pitches to Atlanta third baseman Chipper Jones. Zambrano had given up five home runs in that game, and from what I’ve read overall, was very upset that no one — not his catcher, not the pitching coach, not Cubs manager Mike Quade — came out to try to settle him down. Zambrano has been since placed on the disqualified list (DQ list), meaning he will not be paid and cannot report back to the Cubs even if he wants to; the major league players association is appealing this decision.
Zambrano is known to have anger management issues, or in more practical terms, he’s fiery and a hothead. But he’s never cleaned out his locker before, nor left his team in the middle of a season no matter how poorly the team was doing (and the Cubs have looked plenty bad this season with a 54-68 record, and are currently fifth in the NL Central division), probably because he’s one of the highest-paid pitchers around as the Yahoo Sports article goes on to say:
If the 30-year-old Zambrano really were to go through with retirement, he’d leave the $4.7 million he’s owed over the reminder of this season and the $18 million he’s scheduled to make next year. Then there’s the $19 million vesting option for 2013.
So far, Zambrano isn’t speaking directly, which is probably wise; baseball fans only know that the MLBPA is negotiating on Zambrano’s behalf. While I have never really appreciated Zambrano’s antics on or off the mound, he’s an excellent pitcher when he’s concentrating, and I enjoy his sometimes-blistering comments (earlier this year he called the Cubs a AAA team, which was accurate if disloyal in the extreme, something that also amused the professional baseball reporters). I hope for Zambrano’s sake that he’s able to take the time off to figure out why he got so angry, and work on himself in order to change it; if it’s solely due to how the Cubs were playing, or this other issue of no one being willing to help Zambrano calm down in the game that set him off to the point he cleared his locker out and left the team, maybe this “time out” will do Zambrano some good.
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Update: a fourth story has just been posted, this one about the San Francisco fan who got beaten into a coma in Los Angeles at the start of the season. According to Yahoo Sports, the fan’s doctor is optimistic about fan Bryan Stow’s chances of further recovery:
Bryan Stow is awake, breathing on his own, can move slightly and has been able to interact with his family, said Dr. Geoff Manley, the chief of neurosurgery at San Francisco General Hospital. However, Manley said it’s still unclear how far Stow’s recovery will take him.
“His ability to follow commands has greatly increased,” Manley said. “There have been a lot of ups and downs and we still don’t know where he’s going to plateau in terms of his recovery.”
Stow remains in serious condition and has many hurdles to overcome in dealing with his traumatic brain injury (TBI). But this sounds good, much better than I’d expected due to the circumstances regarding how Stow was attacked in the first place. Here’s hoping Stow defies the odds and comes all the way back.
Just reviewed Ryk Spoor’s “Grand Central Arena” for SBR
Folks, here’s the link:
Now, for a bit about GRAND CENTRAL ARENA — it’s a fun book that hearkens back to the early days of space opera. Good science, as far as I can tell — serviceable, at any rate. Excellent characterization. Enjoyable plot.
In other words, “Good guys, bad guys, and aliens, oh my!” So what’s not to like?
Go read my review, then go grab the book.
Recall Fever: Catch It
Today is the day, folks . . . it’s recall time, part 2, in Wisconsin as six Republican state Senators are facing the political fight of their lives. At the end of tonight’s vote, we will know if they’ve been booted out, or if they’ve been retained . . . who will be the victors?
I don’t live in a recall district, so all I’ve been able to do is watch what’s going on. But I know people are furious in Wisconsin; I know, for example, that in Kenosha County there’s a bunch of Republicans that are very strongly for Democratic state Senator Bob Wirch (who’s own recall election is next Tuesday). And I know that people of all parties, races, colors and creeds signed those recall petitions against the R Senators, that many independents are outraged by the Wisconsin Legislature and Governor’s shift to the hard-right, and that this is our first chance to show our Governor, Scott Walker, that we will not be pushed around in Wisconsin.
Look. I wrote a post back in November after the ’10 mid-term elections where I said that what happened then was not a mandate, but instead a repudiation of what was going on.
As I wrote back on November 3, 2010:
. . . the Republicans — including those in Wisconsin, where they won control of both the Assembly (the lower house) and the Senate (upper house) — are wrong when they think they have received a “mandate” to do anything. What they received was the gift of many Democrats who are angry at how Obama was selected in the first place, along with many who were flat-out frustrated at the policies of Harry Reid (who, inexplicably, held his seat in Nevada) and Nancy Pelosi (easily re-elected, but almost assuredly to retire as former Speakers rarely stay in the House after they lose their Speakership).
So if the Republicans think this is a mandate, they are wrong.
What this was, instead, was a repudiation of the tactics of the DNC on 5/31/08, along with a repudiation of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and the entirety of the Obama Administration in particular.
If the Republicans take the wrong message from this, and start cutting unemployment benefits, start cutting health care benefits that are already extant, and mess with Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Food Stamps, or any of the “social safety net” programs that are so vitally needed with the country as a whole having over 9% reportable unemployment (and more like 17% functional unemployment throughout the USA, with some areas having far more), they will be voted out in turn. (Emphasis added.)
I called it then, and I was right. (Well, right about everything except Pelosi retiring. She’s been an effective House Minority Leader.) Because just as the 2008 Ds overestimated their “mandate,” so did the 2010 Rs. And now, the Rs have reaped the whirlwind.
For those of you who do live in recall districts, get out there and vote — this is your chance to make your voice be heard. Do not sit this election out. Catch the recall fever instead.
Monday Morning Movie Break
After all that’s gone on in Wisconsin, and in the United States as a whole the past few weeks, I needed a break.
So I took one, and watched the most recent movie Sherlock Holmes, starring Robert Downey, Jr., as the title character and Jude Law as his trusty sidekick, Dr. Watson. I enjoyed it a great deal, as it’s a different take on a character I thought I knew all too well after devouring all of Arthur Conan Doyle’s stories and reading all the best science fiction and fantasy “knockoffs,” some of which are diverting in their own right.
See, in this last movie version, Sherlock Holmes is played as a guy who’s not merely cerebral and/or half-touched in the head, but also a prime physical specimen, which I didn’t expect to see at all even though it follows from the text. (How could Sherlock Holmes have done all the things he was said to do without being in excellent physical shape? Especially when you consider all the drugs Holmes sampled, partly for the sake of research and partly to get away from the tedium of daily life.) Downey, Jr., has always been among my favorite actors because he’s obviously not just a pretty face; he’s intelligent, has a sense of humor, and doesn’t take himself too seriously, which all served him well here.
How did I miss this movie when it came out in 2009? I’m not sure. But I’m glad I caught it now, because it’s well worth watching — the only thing that I’m sure was not period was the cleanliness of the London city streets as depicted. (No streets could be as clean as that; not our modern ones with all our technology and lack of horses, certainly not the ones back then without the tech and with the horses.)
Watching this movie helped me to remember that there’s still some things I haven’t experienced in this world that might be worth the time, as I’d really been fretting over the state of the world (and my place within it) again, partly due to whatever cold or flu bug I’ve picked up this time.
There’s a lot of things that are completely out of my control. I’ve known that since I was small, and that lesson was reinforced considerably after two of the most important people to me in the world died (my Grandma in 1999, and my beloved husband Michael in 2004). Watching the political world going wild, not being able to get away from it, and not being able to do very much about it gets to me.
I’m glad, and grateful, when anything can transport me away for a few hours — and this movie did. I highly recommend it to anyone who loves intelligent action movies or appreciates Sherlock Holmes and believes that a really attractive guy like Downey, Jr., can play him as credibly as anyone — or maybe even a bit better.
1996 Petak-Plache Recall Race Holds the Key to 2011 Recalls
Folks, I live in Racine, Wisconsin, so I know full well what happened on June 4, 1996. But for the rest of you, here’s a quick primer.
In October of 1995, George Petak (R-Racine), Wisconsin state Senator from district 21, cast the decisive vote in order to fund the construction of Miller Park in Milwaukee (and keep the Milwaukee Brewers in Wisconsin) by allowing a five county “sales tax” of .01% to go into effect. (In case you’re wondering, the other four counties being taxed on behalf of the Brewers are Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Waukesha and Washington; the sales tax is expected to end sometime between 2015 and 2018.)
Now, Petak had said until the very last minute that he’d vote “no” on this. But then-Governor Tommy Thompson twisted his arm, Petak voted “yes,” and many in Racine County (including Brewers fans) were incensed because Petak hadn’t done what he said he was going to do. (In fact, the Racine Journal-Times’ headline the day after the vote was something like “Petak votes no,” giving us our very own “Dewey beats Truman” moment.)
This palpable anger over Petak’s “bait-and-switch” tactics was the main reason he was recalled, and the palpable anger over Scott Walker’s “bait-and-switch” tactics with regards to the state budget and most especially the fight over collective bargaining for public employee unions is the main reason why the six Republican state Senators have been forced to run in recall elections.
Experts, including political scientists, said in late 1995-early 1996 that Petak would never be recalled, because the two previous recall elections in WI history had retained the incumbents, but they were wrong. While experts, once again including political scientists, didn’t think that nine Senators (six Rs, 3 Ds) would end up having to defend their seats in recall elections — but again, they were wrong.
The reasons why Petak’s decision was controversial were:
1) Racine County had no county sales tax mechanism at the time whatsoever, and getting the mechanism in place in the short run cost more than any collecting of tax.
2) Racine County, while next to Milwaukee County, doesn’t get a lot of business visitors or tourist business from there, so any economic “help” coming from this would be negligible.
3) As previously stated, Petak had said he was opposed until the 11th hour, then switched his vote. This turned the anger over the idea of a county-wide sales tax into white-hot rage and led to Petak’s recall
4) And last but certainly not least, as the Wisconsin state Senate was comprised of 17 Rs and 16 Ds at the time Petak cast his vote, you can see why the big money came out in order to change the composition of the state Senate. Not to mention all the requisite highly-negative ads. (Why do they run those ads, anyway? They only rarely change an informed voter’s mind, and trust me — in Wisconsin, we are informed about these issues or we don’t bother voting.)
Petak, who was primaried by another Republican but fended him off, eventually lost to Democrat Kim Plache and was the first government official to be recalled in Wisconsin history.**
What I saw in 1996 is what I’m seeing right now with the recall efforts against the six Republicans who will face an election on August 9, 2011 (three days and a few hours from now). It’s an election being held at an odd time, where passions must be high to get voters to the polls. There’s lots of money coming in from out of the state and inordinate negative ads on television and radio, some of which bear little resemblance to reality. The control of the Senate is in question, as the Dems need only three of the six seats to “flip” to Democratic control (then to retain the two Democrats who were recalled and need to run on August 16, 2011). And the vitriol on both sides is so deafening it’s nearly impossible to tell who’s going to do what to whom at this point, as it’s now become an endurance contest.
However, there are some differences as well, those being:
1) We’ve never had nine Senators recalled in the same year before (3 Ds, one of whom has already retained his seat, Dave Hansen of Green Bay, and 6 Rs).
2) We’ve never had a Governor who’s this unpopular before. Walker’s been tied to all six Senators (for good or ill) due to all of these votes being taken on Walker’s behalf and due to Walker’s agenda. So these races are as much about Scott Walker as they are about the individual Senators.
3) And finally, the national Democratic and Republican parties have taken a far larger role in 2011 than I remember them doing in 1996. Both major parties seem to believe that if their side wins these six recall races, they’ll gain traction for the 2012 House, Senate, and Presidential races.
As to the tactics of what’s going on in order to get out the vote — well, quite frankly, some of it is highly disturbing. There are allegations that PACs favoring Sandy Pasch (a Democratic Assemblywoman from Sheboygan) gave out free food in exchange for a quick ride to the polls, which is wrong no matter who does it. (I’m all for giving out free food. And I’m all for voting. But the two shouldn’t go together.) Then, there are the allegations (noted in the same article) that the sitting Senator from district 8, Alberta Darling (R-River Hills), Pasch’s opponent, has colluded with outside PACs to send out fake absentee ballots with the wrong dates on them. Under Wisconsin law, doing anything like that — the collusion by itself, mind you — is against the law. While putting the wrong dates on the absentee ballots is just stupid. (Note that in the case of alleged wrongdoing with the “free food for votes” scam, Pasch herself had nothing to do with it.)
Next, in one of the recall races being held on August 16, 2011, the Republican challenger, Kim Simac, refused to debate incumbent Senator Jim Holperin (D-Conover) and didn’t tell anyone she wasn’t going to show up. Not a good move there, no matter how her handlers try to spin it (supposedly Simac “never committed” to this debate; I can’t imagine that excuse is going to go over well with the voters).
Back to the Rs — there’s Luther Olsen (R-Ripon), who said publicly that he was against the “fake Democrats” who entered the Democratic primary in order to give the Republicans more time to fundraise, yet then praised Rol Church, a long-time Republican Party activist, at one of his GOTV rallies. Not to mention that Olsen is the first R known to have Gov. Walker at one of his rallies (even if Walker may have come in via the back door) — most are keeping Walker away like the plague, knowing he’s “box office poison” due to Walker’s unpopularity (Walker is booed wherever he goes, including a recent appearance at the Wisconsin State Fair) — after saying that Scott Walker’s policies are “too extreme” for Wisconsin and saying he wishes he’d have voted differently back in February.
Vacillate much, Senator Olsen?
And let’s not forget state Sen. Dan Kapanke (R-LaCrosse), who said back in May of this year:
“We’ve got tons of government workers in my district – tons,” Kapanke said May 25 at the Cedar Creek Golf Club in Onalaska. “From La Crosse to Prairie du Chien and to Viroqua and to Ontario and to Hillsboro, you can go on and on and on. We have to overcome that. We’ve got to hope that they, kind of, are sleeping on July 12th – or whenever the (election) date is.”
During the candid chat, Kapanke said he was one of three Republicans in serious jeopardy of losing in a recall election.
The other two, he said, are Sen. Alberta Darling of River Hills and Sen. Randy Hopper of Fond du Lac.
“We could lose me. We could lose Randy Hopper in the 18th or Alberta Darling over in – wherever she is – the 8th, I believe,” Kapanke said.
Note this was before Luther Olsen’s recent nonsense, as I’d add Olsen to the list of seriously endangered R Senators.
At any rate, here’s how I handicap the upcoming races:
Sure to lose: Randy Hopper and Dan Kapanke may as well pack their bags and go home right now. They will lose, and they will lose big — Kapanke may lose by double-digits to Assembly Rep. Jennifer Shilling, while Hopper will lose by at least six or eight points to Oshkosh’s Jessica King.
Will most likely lose: Luther Olsen has done himself no favors, and is the third-most likely Senator to be packing his bags.
Will probably lose: Sheila Harsdorf has name recognition and has been better than the rest of the six Rs at answering questions and talking to her constituents. Still, she’s parroted the party-line at every turn and refuses to believe any of her votes were wrong for Wisconsin, while her opponent, teacher Shelley Moore, is the person who led the recall effort against Harsdorf. Providing Moore beats Harsdorf, it won’t be by much.
I sincerely hope this Senator will lose: Alberta Darling has big, big money behind her, and the ads in her favor far outweigh the ads against her. However, most voters in her district know that it was Darling who led the committee that first “vetted” Scott Walker’s budget-repair bill that eliminated collective bargaining for public employee unions. Darling, therefore, had all the power in the world to stop this mess before it started, but didn’t. She definitely deserves to lose, but if she does lose to Sandy Pasch, once again it won’t be by very much.
The wild card: I honestly do not know what’ll happen in the Robert Cowles-Nancy Nussbaum race. Cowles has kept his head down and has said very little about his controversial votes; the only reason I think Nussbaum has a chance, aside from the large amount of people who signed to get Cowles recalled, is because she’s a particularly strong candidate (the only stronger one among the six Ds is Shilling) and has articulated a clear vision about what she’ll do once she gets in there. (I think Nussbaum’s done the best job of this of all six Ds, though props go to King and Pasch for their clear and decisive answers in candidate forums and debates over the past several months.)
So there you have it; my gut says that four, possibly five of the Rs will be joining the unemployment line after the August 9, 2011 elections are over.
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** I called it right away that Petak would be recalled; I was working as a cashier at the time, and I knew how angry people were over Petak’s last-minute vote switch. Even Brewers fans — I’m one — were livid due to the lack of a Racine County sales tax prior to that vote. Further, people were outraged that Petak would refuse to listen to his district, who were adamantly opposed in big numbers. This reason — refusing to listen to his district — is why Petak was recalled and Plache went to Madison in his place. It’s also why at least four of these Republicans will lose on August 9, 2011.
Barb Caffrey's Blog 